El Nino. La Nina. Opposite ends of the ENSO. They run hot and cold and they are definitely capricious. We think we have some skill to predict long-term weather because of limited success with ENSO projections in the past. Sometimes teasing out a forecast or a long-term outlook out of data is a stretch. Other times I just feel like, “just give me the facts.”
That’s why I appreciate my colleague Jan Null of Golden Gate Weather for crunching the numbers and just stating the facts. We can draw our own conclusion about what La Nina or El Nino will bring (hint: the data isn’t very conclusive most of the time). Jan provided this objective look at ENSO events and their relationship to California rainfall.
For La Nina: https://www.ggweather.com/ca_enso2021/ca_lanina.html
For El Nino: https://www.ggweather.com/ca_enso2021/ca_elnino.html
Weather Forum of Southern California 