Short Term, Long Term Update

I’m on the public forecast desk at the NWS for a few days and we’re seeing some signs of fall-like weather in California. That’s a double-edged sword and could mean helpful, beneficial rain or Santa Anas that spread wildfires, or both! Far northern California should get some decent rain this weekend, a nice appetizer for what is hopefully a winter wet season feast. That same system will move cold air into the interior West and push offshore flow into SoCal, but today it doesn’t look to bring a true Santa Ana episode with strong winds or super hot weather. Still, it’s an indicator of more of that kind of pattern to come.

Climate scientist Daniel Swain explains this and also goes out on a long-term limb to discuss what kind of wet or dry winter we’ll have in California. With a strengthening La Nina, the odds look more favorable for a drier than normal winter. But odds are odds, and the lesser likely thing (a wet winter?!) is also possible.

Here’s the latest Weather West blog entry with Swain’s thoughts: https://weatherwest.com/archives/10965